EV review : Who will win the EV race ?
. So we can attack right now, uh directly into the numbers. Ive made a little chart for you guys, and this is what it says. If we look at 2020, we will see that the volumes have been the following. So for tesla you have had a half million for volkswagen is the second uh largest uh ev maker 420k psyc gm and volume its a partnership between the three is 272k. Then we have bmw byd and our favorite golden three, which is both neo x bank and lee, which made 100 000 cars in the year of 2020.. Right now we i checked some information on internet and i found out that sales for 2021 first half were a total of 2.6 million. So we have this huge growth. As you can see on this chart graph, thats uh, you know. Basically, we have a like a a hundred percent uh month on month, uh uh growth, which, which is amazing, and you can see that basically, its three markets or maybe two markets, which is europe and china, which are making a huge, huge progress plus 157 for europe. Plus 200 for china, plus 166 percent for us, but starting from a small base, but still is really really good numbers uh so for global plug in vehicle sales, meaning the hybrids and electric so evs. We are estimated estimated to uh hit 6.4 million cars in 2021, which is a hundred percent increase from 2020. So from three million point two vehicles – this is just amazing, so some of the top ten uh models, uh, which of course would include model three model.
Y and b by d hand. Uh, volkswagen, with its id4 and id3, is also making a a a good results, but uh i mean renault zoe as well and william on the second place, which we cannot really count because its a small car it costs about five thousand dollars. So its not very representative, but still you know very good. I mean results for wooling. No doubt about that, and then we come to this global ev sales, ranking where we uh for uh, first half of 2021, where we uh will see the following: uh guys the producers who are making approximately 80 or we will see what their uh production rate is. A growth rate is in the chart, so basically, what i did is i made a chart and i put all this information into the chart. Okay, this is how it looks like so 2020 numbers. We just talked about its 3.2 million for uh all vehicles produced in 2020 and we have the vehicle adoption of 4.2 percent, with total plug in and gas cars amounting to 78 million, which was slightly down from 2019 from 92 million uh, then uh. We i would like to make an estimate for 2021, and this is how i did it. Basically, you will see here the first half first half of 2021 lets take an example of tesla 386 cars were produced, uh with a 14.6 percent market share and in 2021. Basically, what i do is, i multiply uh 386 first by two, because we have first second quarter.
We have to multiply it by two to get third and fourth quarter, and i multiply it by 1.2 coefficient, which is approximate, which is 20 and which should give us that increase for the third and fourth quarter, which usually is much higher than uh. First and second quarter and we get a number, an estimated number for nine thousand, almost one million uh, basically uh 926 000, which looks correct for volkswagen. We have 800 for psycgm, we have 800 as well, and if we look at the golden three, we would find that estimate an estimate for 2021 for elia after neo and x bank would be approximately 250 cars with hundred thousand cars coming from neo uh 73 cars Coming from expand and the 72 cars coming from li after basically, we input this estimate 2021 in here, and then we would like to estimate uh the the car production until 2030 and to get the taste of who will be the leader and how todays leaders will Increase and which potential they will have until 2030, okay, so, basically, basically lets start for from volkswagen uh. If you look at this number and estimate of 2022, you will see that it has been multiplied by 1.4 k efficient, which is 40 percent, 40 percent, basically theyre producing 700 uh 800 000 cars, which is in this bracket, and i put that in this bracket the Uh increase of the market should be expansion of the growth growth of the market should be 40 from 1.
5, its going to be 30 percent because the base is larger and the market becomes more mature from 5 uh to 10 million. The market becomes even bigger. So the base is even bigger: the maturity even stronger and thats why the percentage would drop, i would say to 20 and from 10 to 20 million production. The growth would be probably about 10. So using these parameters, we have this numbers, so this increase for volkswagen and in 2013 they should have 6.5 million cars produced. If we do the same analysis for golden three, so we would have 6.2 million cars produced basically like volkswagen new week, spang and lee. In my estimate should produce as much uh as much uh cars as uh the whole volkswagen group, which is huge dont forget they have od, they have uh uh porsche. You know they have a lot of a lot of car seats. You know the mass market, the skoda i mean its its its really like huge cars, of course volkswagen as well. So then, then we can separate this golden tree, so basically neo would make 2.5 million cars. Expand would make 2 million cars, and lee would make 1.8 million cars uh in 2030. We would have a plug in market or a plug in adoption of 80 percent, with a 77 million uh vehicles on the road which would be plug in so either evs or either uh hybrid and the total plug in gas market would be approximately 96 and the Total gas would be an approximate 18 uh, 20 um, 19 million okay and the top 11 market share would have 63 million cars which would amount to 82.
So you know the as a conclusion. We can see that global uh, uh plug in market should hit 80 uh penetration rate. Just what we said now and the top 11 should represent 82 of all the plugins. I think that smart evs should survive only on i mean more more um, the smarter, the av, the more chances it has to survive, because all the margins are there. So, basically, if renault zoe, for example or byd will make vehicles will which are not as smart, which will not do robo taxi after yes, i dont think that they will even be in this leader table until 2030, um, not alone, 2, 2, 20, 20, 35 or 20, 40.. Okay. So after after uh, we can basically for tesla. If we look for the numbers for tesla, we have 14 million vehicles which sounds about correct, because if you look at the tesla impact report, they said that by 2030 theyre aiming to sell 20 million electric vehicles per year compared to 0.5 million in 2020. I think its a little bit optimist. You know, which is good, but uh 14 lets stay a little bit less optimist, and i think that uh this this number should be correct. Okay, then guys, i would like to make a um at the growth potential of todays ev leaders and lets check check this table out, which i have made, especially for you here we have the following. So for tesla the average price i put in my perimeter would be 60 000.
Of course it would be a little less. I mean like 30, 000 or 35 40 000, but with the you know, all the energy and all the electric stations and and the chip manufacturing and all these things, if you take all the sales because they contribute to the sales, if you take all the sales, You uh, of course, would have uh sales, which are bigger. You divide this by a number of vehicles and, of course the average price would attempt to go up. So basically, if you ch, if you take 60 000 average price – and you multiply it by 14 uh 14 million vehicles, you would have a sales of 850 billion with a profit margin of 15 percent. Your profit would be 126 billion with the pe of 30. That would abound to a 4 trillion market cap for tesla if they achieve these figures and guys. This does not include where the the fsd so basically the robot sexy and the tesla bot, which will be completely completely uh, changing the world but im not even taking that into account. So you can imagine the potential that tesla has okay, so without fsd and tesla. But they would have a potential of 5.1 x if they achieve this numbers, which is totally totally achievable with an fsd and tesla bot. I think they can go up to 10 trillion dollars. I think it it will be the most expensive company in the world thats.
Just my opinion, but thats really what i think thats. Why tesla for me is i hold it from 2017? Is a lifetime hold, you should hold it a lifetime, in my opinion, thats what i do, thats thats im just im just saying: okay, then you have other vehicles. So lets just jump into golden three for neo. You would have approximately uh uh average price of 60 000 sales would be 145, as you can see, because we multiply by 2.4 million with a 10 profit uh margin, they would have a profit of 14.4 with a pe of 20. They would have a market cap of 290 billion right now, its at 60 billion, so its a 4.6 x same thing for expand. They would have a 5.6 x and least 6.1 x lee after i like a little bit less because they dont make pure ev vehicles. They make a hub hybrid vehicles for the time being, even though the design is really truly exceptional or flea one. It looks really really good. As uh for volkswagen or from eems. I would say that the greatest potential would go to volkswagen group. They have a 3.2 x uh and, i would say, bmw from my calculations. They have a 3.9 x. So basically that is it. As you can see, the market is pretty pretty i mean were just in the beginning. Can we say that theres hype, of course, theres hype? Of course theres news from the chinese that yes, um companies have to consolidate theres, so many companies – everyone is going in into this industry, but i really think that a new expand for sure should should prevail.
I mean they should be a successful tesla, of course too, and probably from ems, volkswagen and dave id look very, very good as well, so they basically thats thats uh thats. My conclusion, so smart tv is the smarter, the av, the more the margin and the more the uh, the the um, the pe, the more the market cap. Basically so thats it.